MOSCOW, January 2 - RIA Novosti. The doctors interviewed by Moskovsky Komsomolets called the conditions for the end of the coronavirus pandemic and assessed whether it could end as unexpectedly as it was with the Spanish flu epidemic a century ago.
As the newspaper notes, then it developed in three waves, while the second was the most difficult. A similar scenario was observed with the Hong Kong flu.
According to bioengineer Alexander Kudryavtsev, the third wave of epidemics is usually the weakest.
"But this applies to the situation with influenza! It should be borne in mind that the situation with coronavirus is completely different. An example is the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS, which occurred in November 2002 and completely disappeared in the summer of 2003," he said. …
According to him, this means that the best time to eradicate the coronavirus is summer.
“Therefore, the speed of vaccine development is extremely important, otherwise we risk being left with this SARS-CoV-2 virus forever, as happened with the OC43 coronavirus, which causes 10-15 percent of colds every year. SARS-CoV-2, it is carried, as they say, "on its feet," he said.
He also added that the widespread assumption is that the threshold of 70 percent of the population with immunity will only be able to defeat the pandemic if it can be achieved synchronously around the world.
Daria Khalturina, chairman of the board at the Council on Public Health and Demography, has a similar opinion.
"Before group immunity is far away. According to experts, in 2021 an excess mortality is planned not less than in 2020. Only vaccination can quickly stop all this," the publication cites her words.
At the same time, Kudryavtsev considers a much more likely scenario that the coronavirus cannot be completely defeated.
"Now I would rather expect a scenario, like with (coronavirus. - Ed.) OC43, when this virus has stayed with us forever, but vaccination can fix it," he said.
According to the latest data from the World Health Organization, there have been about 82 million cases of coronavirus, the pandemic has claimed the lives of more than 1.8 million people.
In Russia, more than 3.2 million cases have been identified, about 58 thousand people have become victims of the disease, and about 2.6 million have recovered.
The latest data on the situation with COVID-19 in Russia and the world are presented on the stopkoronavirus.ru portal.