Why were the statistics of deaths from pneumonia classified? Is alcohol tolerated before and after vaccination and why, in the statistics of deaths from covid, almost half of the deaths are not related to this disease? Andrey UGLANOV, a specialist in the field of epidemiology and medical statistics, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Professor Igor Gundarov, tells about all this to the editor-in-chief of "Arguments of the Week" Andrey UGLANOV. - The topic of a pandemic does not cease to be relevant. Today everyone is talking about the need for vaccination. Not only in Russia, but all over the world. But, according to polls, less than 30% of the population are willing to go and get vaccinated in Russia. Why so few? - Moscow in this regard, it would seem, is a more advanced city in contrast to other Russian regions. But I read a couple of days ago - only 600 thousand people have taken root in Moscow. Or 4.7% of the capital's population. This is almost six months. How long does it take to fight this wave of coronavirus serious? - As they say, in order to develop population immunity, at least 70% of the population must be vaccinated. Deputy Prime Minister T. Golikova promised on March 2 to do it by August of this year. That is, in five months. - This means that for 12 million Moscow you need to vaccinate 8 million. This is a permanent population. And there are even more cash residents. So how many years will it take at current rates to achieve "population immunity"? And this is Moscow! Probably, our leaders have not yet been able to convince most people of the need for vaccination. Recently T. Golikova announced the figure that 10% of those vaccinated have complications after vaccination. What is the reason to take such risks? Previously, a killed or dried vaccine was inoculated, to which the body reacts naturally. Now it is completely different. What is a vector vaccine? The weakened rhinovirus, like a launch vehicle, is launched into the body, and as a warhead it has the genetic parts of SARS-Cov-2. And who guarantees that this warhead gets to the right place, and does not go through other cells? That is, a person receives a new gene, and what is the functional activity of this new gene is a big question. But what we have been taught before is that during epidemics one cannot be vaccinated. - Why? - Imagine, you have already caught the virus, but you still do not know about it, the body has already started producing antibodies. And he is also injected with a vaccine - after all, no one knows that he has a disease during the incubation period. Not every organism can handle such a double blow. Therefore, there is a rule - vaccination ends about a month before the expected outbreak of the corresponding ARVI. And we began to prick at the very peak of the incidence! Moreover, the wave is now subsiding. And in a year there will be another strain. - Academician Gunzburg, one of the vaccine developers, said that physical activity is prohibited after vaccination. But nearly five million people have already been vaccinated. They didn't know about it. What does it mean? Have new data? - I belong to that harmful category of professions that always require proof. Unless there is compelling research evidence, all words are just words. - Moscow Mayor Sobyanin said he hopes to remove all restrictions imposed during the pandemic by April 30. Why then get vaccinated if the threat goes away. - I would like to warn Sergei Semyonovich against hasty conclusions. There will still be a flash, we drew waves in our previous conversations. In March-April, there will definitely be a spring rise in the wave of the disease! And not only covid, but also other infectious and non-infectious diseases. These waves have always been and always will be. This is normal. By May, everything will subside, and live peacefully until the end of September.And then - three waves again. - Alas, sad news continues. Mortality is on the rise! Academician Nigmatulin said that last year the death rate jumped by 300 thousand people compared to 2019. - On the one hand, it is very bitter to think that we have lost an entire medium-sized city as a dead person. But as a scientist, it's hard for me not to feel scientific satisfaction because I predicted it. We have before us Rosstat data from January to December 2020. Mortality trajectories from January to April 2019 and 2020 are very close. And since April 2020, it has gone into a sharp gap. The gap is becoming colossal. In October 2019, 157.7 thousand people died, and in the same month of 2020 - 205.5 thousand. In November, the difference is even more dramatic - 141.3 thousand people in 2019 and almost 220 thousand in 2020. And in December - 149, 2 and 243, 3. That is, in November-December we lost 180 thousand more people than a year earlier. Magicians from Rosstat - Wait, but they seemed to say that 86 thousand people have died from covid to date. And here in one month the additional mortality rate is 80 thousand. How can this be? - It is impossible to answer this question in ordinary statistical representations. First, let's take a look at the Rosstat data. Once it was an independent independent structure. And although they were under pressure, they did their job. I knew the director of the Institute of Statistics, Vasily Simchera. He did not agree with the demands to adjust statistics to the recommendations of his superiors and resigned as director. And then the too independent Rosstat was taken and introduced into the structure of the government, into the Ministry of Economic Development. He became a subordinate organization. We are looking at the latest publication of Rosstat on mortality. Data for November. Column "Information on the number of deaths with an established diagnosis of coronavirus infection in November 2020". A total of 36 thousand. We read on. Of these 36,000, covid is considered the main cause and has been diagnosed in 19,626 people. That is about 55%. The next column is that the coronavirus is considered the main cause, but it has not been identified, it was not - in 3984 people, or 11%. - That is, these are people who died from the coronavirus, in whom the coronavirus was not found? - That's not all. The next column is that COVID-19 is not the main cause of death, but it had "a significant impact on the development of fatal complications of the disease" - 2,178 people. I am a doctor. We have the concepts of "underlying disease", "concomitant disease" and "complication." So the wording from this document is nonsense for doctors. There are no such formulations. And it is not specified - is the coronavirus identified or not? - This is not how doctors work at Rosstat. - The next graph is generally a pearl! “Covid is not the main cause of death and did not have a significant effect on the development of fatal complications” - 9857 people. In fact, one in three of this document, 28%. And again it is not indicated - has the coronavirus been detected or not? - That is, in the document about the deaths from covid, half did not die from him, 11% certainly did not have it, and the rest did not indicate that it was. Are you serious? We will be accused of slandering Rosstat. - These are their official numbers. - I do not know what to say. But this is a serious matter. As you said, we officially have an increase in mortality for November-December 2020 of 180 thousand people in relation to November-December 2019. But in the statistics of mortality from covid, at least half of the deaths are not related to covid. What's happening? - Decide for yourself. It's hard to answer. In addition, the official statistics on deaths from pneumonia moved into the category of classified information. - Probably a lot of people died. It is known that covid causes just pneumonia, or pneumonia. The numbers were classified so as not to frighten the population. - According to official statistics, in 2020, about 24 thousand people died from pneumonia (pneumonia). I rounded up. Roughly speaking - 2 thousand people a month. And Rosstat says about 36 thousand only in November last year.- Well, maybe the fact is that people who catch covid die not only from pneumonia, but also from complications of other diseases that covid caused? - Yes, and it can be. But then for accuracy it is necessary to take croupous staphylococcal pneumonia, croupous streptococcal pneumonia, Klebsiella, Legionella and viral pneumonia. And see which of them has a stronger effect on other human organs. And we will see that next to the monsters of Legionella and Klebsiella, the coronavirus is just like a kid against professional boxers. It is not the covid that kills, but the fear of it - In Moscow, a certain balance is still observed. And what happens in St. Petersburg, a city with a difficult climate, where the world's most famous pulmonologists have worked and are working? From there, every day, then terrible news. - To answer this question, you need to go back to statistics. We do see a two-fold increase in mortality in 2020 compared to the same months a year earlier. Someone killed in addition to the usual figures in November last year 80 thousand people. But is the covid to blame? People do die with increased intensity. From what? Classical science has no answer. Here comes what I have been doing for a long time. Psychosomatics. New directions are already appearing in epidemiology - psychoimmunology, psychoendocrinology, etc. This new scientific direction is slowly, by touch, reveals the influence of a person's mental state on morbidity. I work in demography and have amassed a wealth of data on this subject. I measure the psyche by its statistical traces: in suicides, hopelessness is expressed, in murders, anger is out of control. There are other indicators of the mental state of society, the internal mood of the nation. There are also heart attacks, strokes, possible oncology. Does the psyche affect them? - Of course it does. It's not for nothing that doctors say - all diseases are from nerves. - And now back to our beloved Peter. There is a monograph with the most accurate data on St. Petersburg in the early 90s. It is called “Healthcare of St. Petersburg in the Years of Reforms”. This is a completely revolutionary monograph that shows the influence of the psyche on the somatics. We look - from 1991 to 1994 mortality soars. Moreover, the numbers are so dramatic that it is simply difficult to believe in them. I will only mention the percentage of growth in 1994 compared to 1991. All infections are 285%. Tuberculosis - 232%. Viral hepatitis - 230%. Viruses could not have changed in three years! This is a real miracle with a minus sign. In reality, such numbers are unrealistic. They simply cannot be. Go ahead. Pneumococcal pneumonia - 470% increase. Streptococcus - 370%. And then a real shock. Mental disorders - 1100%! Alcoholism - 1700%! Bacterial dysentery - 1711%! - These are the years of shock therapy for the Russian economy. The time when people lost their life guidelines and suddenly realized that they were deceived with new values. They survived without faith, without purpose, without hope. - They ask - what has the infection to do with it? Okay, mental illness. Well, alcoholism from hopelessness. But these are viruses, they don't know about Yeltsin. There are two hypotheses. Or they all activated at once - and spirochete, and Koch's sticks, and streptococci, and all other viruses. But this cannot explain the repeated rise in mortality from other, non-viral, diseases, for example, from hypertension. My hypothesis is as follows. In this coronavirus fever, we completely forgot about the person and his reserves (scientifically - the recipient). Human immunity largely depends on the psyche. And at the beginning of the reforms, when shock therapy was applied, which her "fathers" proudly spoke of, it was a shock that happened to society. And the shock of a moral character. The country has collapsed, the economy is heading into the abyss, inflation is insane, no one knows how to live. I gave this condition a scary definition - aggressive-depressive syndrome. That is, aggression accompanied by hopelessness, and hopelessness along with insane anger.This aggressive-depressive state has a catastrophic effect on the immune system. That is, it was not the viruses that changed, but the ability of the weakened hopeless human body to resist them. The graph shows that since 1991, mortality from diphtheria begins to take off - 1200%. Dysentery - 1625%. Salmonellosis - 911%. To designate these processes, I introduced the concept of a mega-epidemic. Epidemiology does not know such numbers; they do not fit any pre-existing definition. For conventional medicine, this is a real anti-miracle. But as soon as you connect psychoimmunology to the consideration of the phenomenon, the cover of the miracle falls away. And we see natural psychosomatic addictions. Nature has conducted its own pure experiment - zeroing of human immunity. - A kind of AIDS? - Good comparison. What is AIDS? This is acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. We usually look at infectious AIDS caused by HIV infection. But there is a little-known AIDS, athletes or, for example, astronauts are susceptible to it. Before the launch of a spacecraft or major competitions, athletes and astronauts are isolated from society, they are in quarantine. Because any sneeze in their direction can lead to illness. Their bodies are in such tremendous mental stress that they cannot resist the slightest infection, to which at another time they would simply not pay attention. The same AIDS, only psychogenic. But now I want to show the optimistic component as well. After a peak in 1994, a similar sharp decline in mortality begins. All these deadly spirochetes, gonococci and other horrors disappeared somewhere. Everything returned to normal. But the viruses have not disappeared. It's just that people came to their senses, some goals, meanings and hopes appeared. And the mega-epidemics just disappeared into thin air. Here is an example of how you can drive a nation into depression and it will begin to die out by itself. And if you remove these non-material sources of depression, the nation, again on its own, without your help, will begin to climb out of the death pit. And I insist: what we started with - the rise in mortality last year was caused not by the covid, but by the fear of it, into which society plunged. And not only in our country. I am sure that in other countries the picture is even worse. In Europe, in general, there is real covid-paranoia, we have, compared to them, just a resort. We need to somehow convey these numbers to people, to Putin, to Merkel, to Macron, to Johnson, to Biden, to everyone. It's time to end morally oppressing your citizens with fear. If you feel sorry for them, stop bullying them. Contact us, we will show you the graphs and explain everything. - But it turns out that fear is important primarily for the beneficiaries. And these are global pharmaceutical companies. What predictions can you make? - As for Moscow, our mayor Sergei Semyonovich Sobyanin is a smart man. He understands that after fanning hysteria, it is impossible to immediately reverse the move. Therefore, they will crawl back slowly, step by step. And there are two more very important reasons for an optimistic forecast. The first is the Russian epidemiological school that has survived from the Soviet era. In the scientific world, we were the first to discover the pandemic of fear in January 2020, and began to ring the bells. We discovered seasonal waves of mortality and showed that there are banal seasonal outbreaks of SARS. We gave a scientific impetus to protests around the world. The second is the rational subconsciousness of our people, resistant to panic, unlike other large countries. I prove it with facts. I quote the number of people per million people vaccinated against coronavirus by the beginning of February. In Israel - 11 755, UAE - 6733, Great Britain - 5657, USA - 5188, Canada, Germany, France, Austria, Finland, Denmark, Norway - 1200-2000. Whereas in Russia - 710, Belarus - 43, Ukraine - 23, Kazakhstan - 34. And least of all among the rich countries - 27 - in Japan.